The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.66% as of July 30, 2026, up from 6.58% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday. The rate is the highest since July 31, 2025, when it stood at 6.72%, marking a one-year high that comes as the U.S. conflict with Iran enters its sixth month.
U.S. mortgage rates rose to a 12-month high as Treasury yields climbed in recent weeks and continued fighting in Iran fueled concern about higher inflation. As recently as late February, the average rate dropped slightly below 6% for the first time since late 2022, but borrowing costs have surged since the conflict began. The jump affects millions of prospective homebuyers already navigating a challenging affordability landscape, and mortgage applications fell 6.4% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The increase is driven by a combination of rising Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns tied to elevated energy prices, and uncertainty following this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike. For buyers who had hoped for relief after years of elevated rates, the latest data signals that borrowing costs are likely to remain stubbornly high through the remainder of 2026.
The numbers
What changed this week
Rates climbed across all major loan products as bond markets reacted to geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% as of July 30, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.58%, and a year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%. The 15-year FRM averaged 6.04%, up from last week when it averaged 5.96%, while a year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.85%.
The official Freddie Mac survey reflects rates available to borrowers with excellent credit and a 20% down payment on conventional, conforming loans. Individual rates vary by lender, credit profile, and loan type. The Mortgage Bankers Association pegged rates even higher, at 6.76% for the week ending July 24, 2026, illustrating the range of rates available in the market.
The increase marks the fourth consecutive week mortgage rates have risen, tracking closely with movements in the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.66% at midday Thursday on the bond market, up from just 3.97% in late February, before the war broke out. On Friday, the yield on the US 10 Year Note eased to 4.67%, still well above pre-conflict levels.
Rate breakdown: July 30, 2026
30-year fixed: 6.66% (up from 6.58% last week)
15-year fixed: 6.04% (up from 5.96% last week)
One year ago: 30-year was 6.72%, 15-year was 5.85%
10-year Treasury yield: 4.67% (up from 3.97% in late February)
What’s driving rates
Iran conflict and inflation fears push borrowing costs higher
The war’s impact on energy prices has complicated the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation.
The property market has been held back in recent months by elevated borrowing costs, which had fallen below 6% in late February before the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices. Mortgage rates had fallen below 6% in late February, shortly before the U.S. entered its war with Iran, but have climbed steadily since as the conflict pushed oil prices higher and stoked broader inflation concerns.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but the decision was far from unanimous. Despite increasing support among some officials for a rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. All of the “no” votes came from regional presidents – Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas – who had been the most explicit about the need for higher rates to address inflation that has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy, according to the official Fed statement released July 29. This is the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented with a unified view of which direction rates should head, signaling growing internal tension over how aggressively to combat inflation.
Oil prices have been volatile recently amid on-again, off-again fighting between the U.S. and Iran, but while crude futures were lower to start Fed week, they’re up more than 20% for July, which is likely to keep headline inflation readings hot in the near term. Energy price increases flow through to transportation costs, manufacturing, and consumer goods, creating broader inflationary pressure that the Fed cannot ignore.
You can track the latest mortgage rate data on Freddie Mac’s official Primary Mortgage Market Survey page, which is updated every Thursday with national averages. The official Federal Reserve statement from the July meeting is available on the Federal Reserve’s website.
Market impact
How higher rates are affecting homebuyers and the housing market
Rising borrowing costs are dampening buyer demand and slowing sales activity heading into late summer.
The war contributed to a disappointing spring sales season, and the market has continued to soften. Pending sales fell to their lowest level since early April during the four weeks ended July 26, according to data from brokerage Redfin. The cooling is visible across multiple metrics: applications are down, buyers are pulling back, and some sellers are reconsidering listing their homes.
“While incoming economic data will continue to shape the outlook for interest rates, elevated borrowing costs remain a challenge this summer for many prospective homebuyers,” said MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed applications for both purchase and refinance loans declined, reflecting hesitation among borrowers facing rates that remain well above the sub-4% levels many enjoyed during the pandemic era.
Mortgage rates rose from 6.23% to 6.94% after Iran conflict escalation, and brokers now expect about 4 million home sales in 2026, with one broker estimating that higher rates tied to the Iran conflict will cost the market at least 400,000 home sales nationally this year. That represents a significant shortfall compared to pre-conflict projections, when the industry had anticipated a stronger recovery in transaction volume.
Despite the challenges, “The housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options and helping support buyer activity as mortgage rates fluctuate,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. Inventory levels have improved modestly compared to the severe shortages of recent years, giving buyers more choices even as affordability remains strained.
For context on how current rates compare historically and what you can do to secure the best possible rate, see our guides on mortgage financing options and calculating what you can afford. If you’re a first-time buyer struggling with high rates, explore down payment assistance programs and first-time buyer resources that can help offset costs.
Your questions
Mortgage rates and the Iran conflict: common questions
Why are mortgage rates going up if the Fed didn’t raise rates?
Mortgage rates don’t directly follow the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate. They track the 10-year Treasury yield, which is set by bond market investors. Treasury yields have climbed because investors are demanding higher returns to compensate for inflation risk tied to elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict. Even though the Fed held rates steady this week, three members dissented in favor of a hike, signaling that rate increases may still be on the table if inflation doesn’t improve. That uncertainty pushes Treasury yields—and mortgage rates—higher.
How much has the Iran conflict affected mortgage rates?
Rates fell below 6% in late February 2026, just before the U.S. conflict with Iran began. Since then, the 30-year rate has climbed to 6.66%, an increase of more than 0.66 percentage points. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 3.97% in late February to 4.67% by the end of July. Industry analysts estimate the conflict has added between 0.375% and 0.70% to mortgage rates, depending on how spreads between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities have behaved. Without the war’s impact on oil and inflation expectations, rates would likely be in the low-6% range or below.
Is 6.66% a high mortgage rate historically?
By recent standards, yes—it’s the highest rate in a year. But historically, 6.66% is still below the long-term average. From 1971 through 2023, the 30-year fixed rate averaged well above 7%. Rates peaked above 18% in the early 1980s. The pandemic era’s sub-3% rates were the exception, not the norm. That said, today’s 6.66% rate is high relative to home prices and incomes, which is why affordability has become such a challenge. A rate that might have been manageable in the 1990s is much harder to handle when the median home price is near $420,000.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying a home?
Timing the market is difficult. Forecasters are divided: the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to average 6.5% through 2027, while Fannie Mae is slightly more optimistic at 6.2%-6.3%. If the Iran conflict de-escalates and inflation cools, rates could drift lower. But if the war continues or inflation worsens, rates could climb further—some analysts see a potential peak near 7.25% if conditions deteriorate. If you find a home you can afford at today’s rates, buying now and refinancing later if rates drop may be a better strategy than waiting indefinitely. You can always refinance if rates improve, but you can’t recapture a home you lost to another buyer.
How can I get a lower rate in this environment?
Shop multiple lenders—Freddie Mac research shows getting one additional quote saves borrowers about $600 over the loan’s life, and three quotes can save $1,200. Improve your credit score if possible; even a 20-point increase can lower your rate. Consider paying discount points if you plan to stay in the home long-term; one point (1% of the loan amount) typically reduces your rate by 0.25%. Look into government-backed loans like FHA, VA, or USDA, which often carry lower rates than conventional loans. And compare 15-year loans, which have lower rates than 30-year mortgages—the 15-year rate is currently 6.04%, more than 0.60% below the 30-year rate.
What happens if the Fed raises rates in September?
If the Fed hikes its benchmark rate at the September meeting, mortgage rates will likely move higher, though the magnitude depends on whether the market has already priced in the increase. Currently, bond markets are pricing in about a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September. If that happens as expected, the impact on mortgage rates may be muted because it’s already reflected in Treasury yields. But if the Fed surprises with a larger hike or signals more increases ahead, mortgage rates could jump significantly. Conversely, if the Fed holds steady again and inflation data improves, rates could ease slightly. Watch the August inflation reports and Fed commentary for clues.